Same players, new issues in Omar-Samuels rematch

WASHINGTON — In what’s likely to be the hottest congressional race in the state, Rep. Ilhan Omar’s rematch with Democratic challenger Don Samuels is playing out on a different field this year.

This is a high-stakes race because whoever wins the August primary will most likely be sent to Washington to represent the Minneapolis-based 5^th District in the next Congress. The district is one of the most Democratic-leaning congressional districts in the state.    

Samuels, 74, nearly defeated Omar in a primary two years ago; only about 2% points separated the rivals. Back then, Samuels’ candidacy was bolstered by his campaign to portray Omar as soft on crime and he made much of the lawmaker’s support for a failed amendment that would have replaced the Minneapolis Police Department with a new Department of Public Safety.

But polls show crime is not as much of a concern among voters than it was two years ago. So, although public safety continues to be a campaign plank, Samuels has tried to differentiate himself from Omar in other ways.

Initially, Samuels focused his differences with Omar on how to address the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Samuels slammed the Minneapolis City Council — which once counted him among its members — when it approved a symbolic resolution in January calling for an immediate and permanent cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war; humanitarian aid to Palestine; an end to U.S. military funding to Israel and the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.

Omar agreed with the resolution’s positions. But Samuels said the resolution “served to divide neighbors from one another.”

Samuels also condemned Omar for voting against a congressional resolution approved shortly after Hamas attacked Israel in October that aimed to show continued U.S. support of Israel.

His stance helped the Samuels campaign win support from several noted pro-Israel donors, including financier Jeffrey Schoenfeld and energy executive Richard Plutzer, who have also donated to the campaigns of the Democratic challengers to Reps. Cori Bush of Missouri and Summer Lee of Pennsylvania – members of a progressive group of lawmakers known as the “squad.”

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) has targeted Bush, Summer, Rep. Jamaal Bowman of New York and other squad members, including Omar, for their criticisms of Israel and pledged $100 million to support pro-Israel candidates — and oust targeted progressives. But the politically powerful organization hasn’t spent any money — yet — to help Samuels.

“We are currently evaluating primary races involving detractors of the U.S.-Israel relationship,” AIPAC spokesman Marshall Wittman said. “We are already involved in several races, and we will be engaged in additional campaigns where we can have the greatest impact.”

AIPAC contributed $350,000 to the United Democracy Project, an allied group created to boost Samuels. But Samuels complained that the help was too little, too late.

Omar has used the threat posed by AIPAC to raise money for her campaign.

“Dark money super PACs like AIPAC donated huge sums of money to amplify Ilhan’s opponent last cycle and are preparing to do so again to defeat our movement,” Omar’s campaign wrote in a digital solicitation. “We need all of the support we can get to fight back and WIN.”

Omar told MinnPost that AIPAC has “always played in my primary races and it’s not going to be different this year.”

But she said the 5^th District’s “educated and committed voters” have always rejected attempts to unseat her. “I am confident they will do that again,” she said.

She also said the 5^th District is “the most anti-war district” in the nation, based on the number of calls and letters she receives and the demonstrations that occur every weekend in the district.

“They are persistent in calling for peace,” Omar said of her constituents.

Omar’s campaign has raised nearly $4.9 million for her re-election and already spent more than half that money fending off Samuels, who only began raising money late last year and has raised more than $775,000.

Public shift on Israel-Hamas war impacts race

One problem for Samuels is that public support for Omar’s position on the strife in the Middle East has grown as civilian Palestinian casualties mount, a shift that could be measured in the strength of the protest vote of Democrats who chose “uncommitted” over President Joe Biden in several party primaries this year, including the one in Minnesota.

Palestinian casualties and difficulties delivering humanitarian aid to Gaza posed by the Israeli government have frustrated Biden and prompted him to take a harder line toward Israel, although this weekend’s attack on the U.S. ally by Iran could once again alter the equation.

Omar was quick to put out a statement condemning Tehran for its attack – and also condemned the Israelis for their assassination of an Iranian general at a diplomatic post in Syria that provoked retaliation from Iran.

“As leaders in Washington jump to call for war with Iran and rush additional offensive weapons to the Israeli military, we need to exercise restraint and use every diplomatic tool to de-escalate tensions,” Omar said in a statement.

Like Biden and many Americans, Samuels has shifted his stance on the Middle East, too.

“Over time, the conflict of Israel in Palestine has become so frightening that  everybody agrees it is too extreme and I do, too,” Samuels said. “We need a ceasefire, and we need a return of all of the (Israeli) hostages. But at the end of the day, the damage has been done in the Jewish community because they don’t think (Omar) cares.”  

Samuels also said the way Omar approached the crisis in the Middle East “is really consistent with her tendency to exacerbate conflict rather than bringing healing and bringing people together.”

“When you have a real conflict, that really brings out the worst in her, in that she picks a side and is unable to weigh the value of each side,” he said.

Yet David Schultz, a Hamline University political science professor, said “the Israeli-Gaza war has bailed Omar out.”

“A lot of people are saying she’s right in criticizing Israel,” Schultz said.

‘Pragmatic’ progressive v. progressive

Samuels calls himself a “pragmatic progressive” who has sided with Omar on many issues, including the need to protect abortion rights and fight climate change and homelessness.

“I will always pull against the chain for change, but I’m very pragmatic about it,” he said.

Like Omar, who was born in Somalia, Samuels is an immigrant.

A Jamaican by birth, Samuels went to college in the United States and became an industrial designer. But after a 30-year career, Samuels said he felt a calling for public service. He lives in North Minneapolis and works to aid low-income communities. Besides serving on the City Council, Samuels has also held a seat on the Minnesota Board of Education.

Omar, 41, served in Minnesota’s House of Representatives before she was elected to Congress in 2018.

A lightning rod for the  right wing, Omar has faced well-funded rivals in both primary and general elections and won them handily — until Samuels came close to defeating her in 2022.

She has ramped up her campaigning this year. Besides raising and spending more money on the primary election, Omar said she has organized on the caucus level “to get the most delegates at the district convention.”

Omar will need those delegates because the first big showdown with Samuels will occur on May 11 at the district’s nominating convention.

Samuels said he will try to block the DFL from endorsing Omar as its favored candidate for the 5th District seat. That’s something he nearly accomplished two years ago when the congresswoman failed to win the support of at least 60% of the delegates on a first ballot.

“That was unprecedented,” Samuels said.

Omar also said she is “fully onboarding” a campaign staff for the primary.

“The way we conducted our campaign in 2022 was an outlier,” Omar said. “We were preserving our resources for the general election. … We just had a different tactic in 2022.”

Omar is very actively promoting her efforts to secure federal money for special projects in the district. She recently began showcasing each one of the 15 earmarks she procured this year — many for non-profits that work to help veterans and immigrants and expand affordable housing — in a weekly event she calls “Funding Fridays.”

She has also secured the endorsements of seven mayors in her district — four more than she won two years ago. Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey has endorsed Samuels in 2022.

One thing has not changed in this election cycle. As Samuels agrees with much of Omar’s progressive agenda and has adopted her calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, he continues to focus on how Omar expresses herself, calling her approach “divisive.”

“Tone-policing women, especially women of color, has been a tactic that has been used to attack us,” Omar said. “And I believe that it is important for me to be decisive, to lead with integrity, to have clarity, to be accountable to my constituents, to be transparent and to be able to communicate with my constituents in a way that I feel is necessary.”

The Samuels campaign has recently released an internal poll that showed he was virtually running neck-and-neck with Omar.

Yet political scientist Schultz said, “I think (Omar) looks stronger now than she did two years ago.

One reason? Schultz said AIPAC support for her rivals “is becoming toxic.”

Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics said “Omar is right to take the primary very seriously.” But Kondik also said Omar is in a much better position to win re-election than some of her squad colleagues.

“The conventional wisdom seems to be that, of the most left-wing House Dems, Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush are in the most trouble. Part of that involves scandals unique to them,” Kondik said.

There are also two other Democrats challenging Omar: attorney Sarah Gad and former Air Force officer Tim Peterson, who has raised $17,822 for his campaign. Gad has not filed her latest campaign finance report, but had raised about $86,000 in campaign cash as of the end of last year.

Whoever wins August’s primary election would likely face Dalia Al-Aqidi, who is the only GOP candidate in the race, although there is time for another Republican to file for candidacy. Al-Aqidi has already raised more than $578,000 for her campaign.